کتاب Strategy in Flood Crisis Management

Table of Contents

Chapter One 7
Generalities of the study 7
Introduction 7
Chapter two 13
Introduction 13
Definition of Crisis 14
Definition of crisis management 15
Types of crises 16
characteristics of the crisis 17
Goals of crisis management 17
Features of crisis management 18
Stages of crisis management 18
Negative effects of the crisis 20
Crisis management system 22
Projecting the crisis management system 24
Implementation steps of the plan for unforeseen events (floods, etc.) at the time of crisis 25
Features of the emergency management command system in the flood crisis: 29
Crisis and Incident Management Command system 30
Description of the duties of hospital management organization chart in flood crisis 32
Operation stages of the crisis management system of hospitals during floods 33
Organization of patient reception space 33
Identifying personnel 34
Allocating resources to the patient reception area 34
Triage upon arrival of patients to the hospital 34
Identification and information registration 34
Evaluation of program performance levels by the crisis management system 35
Warning status 35
Emergency preparedness program of the emergency department: 36
Brief implementation of hospital emergency preparedness plan 36
Operations of the central telephone unit of the hospital 36
Organization of patient reception space 37
Identifying personnel 37
Allocating resources to the patient reception area 37
Preparation of medical supplies and equipment 37
Preparation of the surgical department 38
Preparation of the emergency department 38
Preparation of other departments and services of the hospital 39
Preparation of hospital nursing system 39
Preparation of paraclinical departments 39
Preparation of administrative departments 40
Preparation of the security unit of the hospital 40
Preparation of public relations unit and communication with the press 41
Preparation of general services of the hospital 41
Definition of flood 41
Effective factors in the flood crisis in Iran 43
Regional and basin characteristics 44
Reasons for the occurrence and spread of flood damage 46
Development process and changes in the current system of dealing with natural crises (floods, earthquakes, etc.) in the country 48
Solutions to Deal with the Flood Crisis 49
Reducing the vulnerability of the flood crisis from the point of view of UNISDR 51
United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction Office in Iran: 52
Education and advocacy 53
Types of Flood Management Methods 54
Structural Methods 54
Non-structural Methods 54
Effective factors in flood forecasting and warning to reduce damage 55
Background 57
Domestic studies: 57
International studies 62
Chapter three 65
Study Method 65
Introduction 65
Study Process 65
Method of the Study 66
Statistical population and statistical sample 66
Statistical sample 66
Data collection methods and instruments 67
Method 67
Method of analysis 69
Delphi method 69
Paired comparisons 71
Chapter four 72
Data Analysis 72
Introduction 72
Descriptive statistics 72
Gender of respondents 73
Level of education 74
Age of respondents 75
Analytical Hierarchy Approach 103
Hierarchical tree 104
Goal notation, criteria, and sub-criteria 105
Pairwise comparison between support management and human resources 106
pairwise comparison between organizational structure and specialized equipment 109
pairwise comparison in the Information System 112
pairwise comparison of criteria 114
Sensitivity analysis 116
Sensitivity Analysis Based on Efficiency for the General Purpose 116
Sensitivity analysis based on dynamics regarding the overall objective 117
Sensitivity analysis based on the slope relative to the overall target 119
Analysis of two-dimensional sensitivity to the overall goal 119
Chapter five 121
Discussion and Conclusion 121
Introduction 121
Descriptive findings 121
Summary of the Findings 121
Findings from Questions and Hypotheses 121
Summary of the findings 124

A crisis is a situation that disrupts the order of the main system or parts of it and disrupts its stability (Tajik, 2018). A crisis is a situation where sudden changes in one or more of the variable factors of the system depend on the severity of the crisis, the factors that aggravate or mitigate the crisis, and the techniques available to manage and ultimately control it (Yazdanpanah, 2019). A crisis is defined based on the definition of the system as follows: the constituent parts of the system in a certain framework based on measured and regulated criteria and standards, and the relationships that they establish with each other in the form of action and reaction (Yazdanpanah, 2019).
Floods are one of the natural disasters that cause great damage to people and society every year. The flood warning system ensures that the end users of the forecasting system receive the right warning at the right time and take appropriate action to maintain and minimize damage to their assets. The occurrence of torrential and heavy rains is one of the climatic features of arid and semi-arid regions, which causes floods. The occurrence of such rains is the result of a combination of synoptic and environmental conditions. The passage of Mediterranean cyclones is the most important cause of torrential rains in Iran (Zarei and Valipour, 2020).
The Mediterranean climate of the country and the temporal and spatial density of rainfall in most of the watersheds have caused huge floods to occur in these watersheds and caused a lot of human and financial damage. Other countries are also suffering from this natural disaster. Depending on the policies applied by the governments, the way of dealing with these natural disasters has been different. For example, in Japan, the applied policies include storing as much flood water as possible for water purposes. This policy is based on the point of view of using the floods as much as possible for water resources. In Iran, despite the limited water resources in most of the country’s watersheds, the flood control policy is applied to design and operate hydraulic structures to drain the flood without causing damage downstream (Sani, 2018).
Flooding is one of the phenomena in nature that human beings have witnessed for a long time. In Iran, due to the large area, numerous climates, and temporal and spatial density of rainfall in most watersheds, we witness massive floods in most regions of the country every year (Mahdavinia, 2019).
The crisis manager must have multiple technical, human, and administrative skills at the same time. Among the skills needed in crisis management are public relations and communication skills, advertising skills, public opinion, high-level guidance and coordination skills, technical skills in rescue operations, inter-agency coordination, and the ability to make quick decisions. The correct person is the crisis manager (Pazooki and Saboori, 2020).
Over the past few decades, new methods have been devised to deal with floods, and these methods are more preventative than curative in nature. By implementing specific plans for the use of urban land, regulations, and laws, as well as educating people, it is possible to reduce and minimize the damage caused by floods. At the same time, to avoid spending heavy and exorbitant costs on the construction of flood control facilities, which cost a great deal of money (Enayati and Givehchi, 2020).
In this regard, studying documents identifies the factors affecting the flood crisis and provides possible strategies. This results in paying attention to crisis management in urban planning, to prevent floods, reduce rainfall losses, and make optimal use of rainwater in the city. Therefore, this study aims to answer these questions: firstly, what are the factors influencing the flood crisis in Ahvaz city, and secondly, what are the possible strategies to prevent the flood crisis?
Facing the crisis of the urban environment is one of the issues that most cities are facing. In this regard, flood is a danger that people in many countries have faced, and it is recognized as one of the most severe disasters among the 15 types of natural disasters in the world. The population pressure and the lack of agricultural land caused the human population to move to the flood plains, which has intensified the floods and their destructive effects. However, today, considering the destructive effects of floods on human societies, structural methods of flood protection, such as dams and other methods of flood management and control, can be effective if the design capacity of these structures is high. But when these structures are fractured, there is always a residual risk. In many cases, such structures may be inappropriate or impossible to implement due to environmental reasons, and as a result, non-structural methods are required. Flood warning is essential for residual risk management and is one of the most effective non-structural methods of flood management. A comprehensive document of a program that can affect the occurrence of natural disasters and their consequences of knowing the causes and factors. Besides not paying attention to the natural interaction and connection of different regions of the country and changing the use of the substrate and the privacy of important water resources, a cycle of non-natural disasters has been caused. It is expected that floods will always happen in the country.
Climate change, global warming, and resulting droughts are among the most significant challenges facing the world today, which can cause widespread fluctuations in global climate conditions. These fluctuations have caused extensive changes in weather patterns (such as rainfall distribution and the occurrence of atmospheric phenomena). As a result, they have caused the spread and continuation of drought, soil erosion, desertification, dust, and environmental degradation. Among the factors and consequences of climate change are global warming (which is also known as global warming), changes in the pattern of rainfall, and torrential rains, changes in the form of precipitation from snow to rain, and finally, the effect of this factor on the occurrence of floods. Urbanization and the elimination of plants reduce the amount of infiltrating water and increase surface water. On the one hand, the large volume of water increases the magnitude of the flood, and on the other hand, with the increase in erosion, it creates sediments that, if left behind, reduce the capacity of the main river bed (Mahdavinia, 2019).
In general, in Khuzestan, the collection of surface water is the responsibility of the municipalities, and the management of wastewater is with the Water Fast organization. On the other hand, there is no surface water collection system in this province. Only in some areas of the company built by the British, such as New Side, Oil Town, etc., is the surface water collection system also predicted. In these areas, rainwater is easily drained and directed to the river. Therefore, when there is no surface water collection channel, it causes the water to move towards the sewers, which also has many problems. In Ahvaz and other cities in Khuzestan, there are concrete or asbestos pipes that are not flexible. As a result, these pipes faced concerns in recent years; one of them was subsidence, which means that the closer you get to the sea, the level of underground water rises. They are left; that’s why, in Ahvaz, we are facing the leakage of sewage water into the underground water. Therefore, the institution that oversees the existence or non-existence of necessary facilities for crisis management is the province’s general crisis manager. The general director of crisis in the province, who works under the supervision of the governor, must check the equipment. If there is a shortage, put the purchase of the necessary equipment on the agenda and force the purchase of this equipment. According to the above, first, we should identify the factors altering the flood crisis. Then we should provide the possible strategies so that the responsible organizations, especially the crisis management, ABFA company, and Ahvaz municipality, can make appropriate decisions in the field of reducing the flood crisis.

Crisis
A crisis is an event that occurs suddenly, sometimes increases, and leads to a dangerous and unstable situation for an individual, group, or society. A crisis creates a situation that requires fundamental and extraordinary action to be taken to address it. Crises vary by type and severity. A crisis is a large, specific stressor that breaks down conventional notions and causes widespread reactions. It creates new damages, threats, risks, and needs (Khabiri et al., 2020).

Crisis Management
Crisis management refers to a set of activities, solutions, and instructions that manage an organization in a crisis and aim to mitigate, control, and resolve the crisis. In general, crisis management means purposefully pushing the progress of affairs into a manageable routine and expecting things to return to pre-crisis conditions as soon as possible.
Unlike risk management, which involves assessing potential threats and finding the best way to prevent them from happening, crisis management involves dealing with threats before, during, and after a threat (Akbari et al., 2019).

Flood Crisis
A flood is an exceptionally strong flow of water that may overflow from the natural river bed and occupy the land around the bed. Flooding can be the result of heavy rainfalls, the rapid melting of snow and ice, or the destruction of dams. Whatever the reason for this process, when it enters urban areas, it causes damage and sometimes many casualties. This is because the city encroaches on natural hydrological spaces (channels and riverbeds) in the course of its growth and development (Doroudi, 2019)

Today, the phenomenon of climate change and the increasing human intervention in the global climate, two natural disasters, drought and flood, affect different parts of the planet. In the last few years, our country has witnessed frequent floods and severe droughts in most places, especially the fact that the occurrence of these two natural disasters reinforce each other in such a way that due to the occurrence of severe droughts, the vegetation and the moisture of the soil is lost, which is the factor that facilitates the flow of destructive floods. On the other hand, severe floods have also caused the destruction of agricultural lands and the washing away of fertile soils, which aggravates the effects of drought in this region. On the other hand, unprincipled manipulations in the natural environment of the earth have been the most important feature of extensive constructions in the last three decades, and in the meantime, the natural drainage network and especially rivers have been attacked more than other natural elements, so that the displacement of the route, Improper change of river geometry, encroachment on the flood zone, indiscriminate harvesting of sand and gravel, implementation of inappropriate structures on rivers and release of waste, sewage and sewage into the river environment have been part of human manipulations in nature. The occurrence of damaging floods in most of the catchment areas of the country and the expansion of water resources development plans in them have shown the necessity of creating real-time flood forecasting and control systems and optimizing flood control in these areas. In line with this, the optimal use of water resources as well as the use of the potentials created in this field has caused the issue of principled use and optimization of the use of these plans to be given serious attention. Crisis management can be defined as the process of predicting and preventing the occurrence of a crisis, dealing with and intervening in a crisis, and restoring health after the occurrence of a crisis. In addition, crisis management focuses on influencing public opinion and stakeholders in public relations. A part of crisis management is related to predicting and preventing the occurrence of a crisis and it is relevant before the occurrence of the event (crisis). Another part is related to current crises and their resolution. Crisis management is a dynamic military system that is designed to reduce the probability of a crisis and limit its effects and damages, as well as restore the system to a normal state (Yahyaei, 2020). In the field of crisis management, according to the different definitions that have been presented, there is a consensus among many thinkers is the task of crisis management, crisis control in a short time using the best principles and methods, etc. The content of crisis training differs according to the type of crisis; However, it is necessary to implement minimum international standards in crisis training, which will promote, increase knowledge and skills, and create policies and guidelines for conducting crisis maneuvers.

Definition of Crisis
A crisis is an incident that occurs naturally or by humans, suddenly or in an increasing manner, and imposes hardship and hardship on human society that requires basic and extraordinary measures to resolve it (Boin et al., 2019).
A crisis is a situation that disturbs the order of the main system or parts of it and disrupts its stability (Tajik, 2018). A crisis is a situation that causes sudden changes in one or more parts of the variable factors of the system. The severity of the crisis situation depends on the aggravating factors or elements that reduce the crisis and the available techniques for managing and finally controlling it (Yazdanpanah, 2019). The crisis is defined based on the definition of the system as follows: the constituent parts of the system in a certain framework based on measured and regulated criteria and standards, the relationships that they establish with each other in the form of action and reaction (Yazdanpanah, 2019).
A crisis is an event that affects the interests and reputation of an organization and disrupts the flow of affairs. Also, in the dictionary, crisis means the turning point of getting better and worse. Crisis refers to incidents that occur suddenly as a result of natural and human actions and actions and impose hardships and problems on a human group, its resolution requires emergency, immediate, and extraordinary measures. In general, the crisis is nothing but the manifestation of the collision of all the factors that once changed from a state of order to a state of disorder. From an operational point of view, the crisis can be analyzed as a system in which there are two different series of factors, one is the environment and system structure, and the other is the factors that cause the crisis. In addition, the meaning of crisis is the existence of special conditions that make decision-making difficult at that point in time. However, the role that public relations can play as a management arm either in crisis prevention in confronting and transitioning from crisis, or in creating suitable conditions after the occurrence of a crisis is an important and worthy issue (Torabian, 2020).

Definition of crisis management
Until a few years ago, crisis management was an unknown term, but now it is known as a part of public relations activity. In this matter, because of the many duties that public relations have in terms of internal and external organizations. In fact, the public relations of an organization are considered as an internal and external media in crisis management. With these interpretations, public relations are in charge of the organization’s crisis management headquarters. The reason for this was the events that took place in late 1981 in Bhopal, Lockerbie, etc. At this time, a number of public relations institutions continuously explained those events and thus created the motivation to fight against them in organizations, and then crisis management appeared (Salehi, 2019). Crisis management is still considered a new science and its work is mostly media control (Salehi, 2019).
Crisis management is an applied science that seeks to find tools that can be used to prevent crises through systematic observation of crises and their analysis. Or if it occurs, regarding the reduction of its effects, the necessary preparation, quick relief, and improvement of the situation (Booth, 2017).
In a general summary, crisis management focuses on five categories; Organization, communication, decision-making, recognition of crisis factors, and solid design:
 The greater the organization of the crisis-fighting forces, the easier it is to control the crisis.
 The greater the amount of communication between crisis management agencies, the more effective crisis management is.
 The higher the speed of decision-making by crisis management, the faster the crisis control.
 The more familiar and well-known the crisis factors are for the crisis managers, the easier it is to control the crisis (Tajik, 2019).
Types of crises
In general, the common types of crises in the world are as follows: earthquakes, volcanoes, sea waves caused by earthquakes, tropical cyclones (storms), floods, earth cracks, natural fires of forests and forests, and droughts, common diseases, major accidents, social riots, and crises caused by war (Belkhadir, 2018).
characteristics of the crisis
1- The crisis is more of an emergency and immediate situation than a chronic situation, despite the fact that the time is uncertain.
2- Crisis causes changes in behavior and usually has pathological effects such as despair, reduction of productivity, escape from responsibility, and making excuses.
3- The crisis threatens the goals of the involved parties.
4- A crisis is a relative state of perception, that is, an event that may be recognized by one side of the crisis, and may be unrecognizable by the other side.
5- The crisis creates pressure in the organism of the body and causes fatigue and confusion.
The crisis is generally unpredictable (it is impossible to predict when and where it will happen).
6- Crises have destructive effects and people who did not need help before the crisis will need help as soon as the crisis occurs.
7- Crises have a long and consuming nature and effects.
8- In a critical situation, decision-making is usually done under dire conditions and in limited time, and the information needed by the decision-makers is incomplete (Ghaderi, 2019).
Goals of crisis management
 Optimizing activities to deal with the crisis and minimizing the damages caused by it.
 Finding a reasonable solution to resolve the abnormal situation in such a way that the basic interests of the organization are preserved.
 Achieving a satisfactory solution to resolve an abnormal situation in a way that preserves and provides basic interests and values.
 It is necessary to take the right steps and provide care to ensure that the negative effects caused by a problem or crisis have affected the image of the organization in the eyes of the general public or its performance (Mahdian Boroujeni et al., 2019).